• Laurent DECORY

3 scenarios for COVID-19 outbreak economic impact

Updated: Mar 24, 2020

Here are 3 scenarios for COVID-19 outbreak economic impact, with base-case scenario driving -0.3/-0.7 percentage point GDP. Key actions for businesses include employee protection, cross-functional response team and stabilizing the supply chain.


#coronavirusoutbreak #economicimpact

The Coronavirus outbreak is primarily a human tragedy, impacting thousands of people globally.

For the first time, cases outside China surpassed those within China, with 77 countries reporting cases as of March 3rd, with 91,347 documented cases 3,120 deaths and 48,284 recovered.

It also has a growing impact on the world economy.


Three scenarios have been established to evaluate global economic impact.

In the base-case scenario, continued spread in most impacted geographies, and community transmission in new ones, will impact GDP growth by 0.3- to 0.7-percentage-point in 2020. Optimist and pessimistic scenarios are defined as well.


Key actions to be taken by businesses to minimize impact include protecting employees, setting up cross-functional response team and stabilizing the supply chain.


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